Scenario planning has become a critical tool for financial agility. Yet, many organisations struggle with where to begin. Should they rebuild their entire forecasting process, or is there a way to integrate scenario planning without a massive upfront investment? How can finance teams balance the flexibility of spreadsheets with the robustness of purpose-built FP&A solutions? More importantly, how can companies ensure that their forecasts are not only accurate but also relevant and timely for decision-making?

This discussion goes beyond technology—it is about building a culture of proactive planning, where organisations leverage business acumen, cross-functional collaboration, and iterative refinement to make better strategic choices.

This report summarises the key insights and takeaways from The Digital Nordic & Benelux & UKI FP&A Circle: Agile FP&A Ecosystem for Scenario Management. It outlines a practical roadmap for organisations looking to strengthen their scenario planning capabilities—starting small but thinking big.

Scenario Planning – How to Start Small (and Why)

Bartosz Obojski, Director of Global Finance Planning and Analysis at Esko, highlighted a pragmatic approach to financial scenario planning, emphasising that organisations can adopt it incrementally without immediate heavy investment in technology or extensive training. He noted that while scenario planning is gaining traction in the finance community, it is often perceived as a complex undertaking. However, businesses can start small by leveraging existing processes and methodologies to build an internal culture of scenario-based decision-making.

A key starting point is utilising a top-down adjustment mechanism on existing financial plans, creating alternative scenarios—such as high and low cases—based on risks and opportunities. Bartosz recommended standardising inputs across the organisation to facilitate consolidation and aligning scenario development with key business functions, including sales, marketing, and R&D. An iterative approach is crucial, allowing companies to refine their methodologies cycle after cycle, identifying meaningful parameters and adjusting based on real-time insights.

Figure 1

Ultimately, Bartosz underscored that scenario planning is a journey, beginning with cultural adoption and process optimisation before transitioning to advanced systems. By starting with a simple yet structured approach, organisations can better prepare for uncertainty, making more informed strategic decisions when the time comes to invest in sophisticated technology.

Poll Insight: How Would You Rate Your Scenario Planning Maturity?

The poll results indicate that most organisations are still in the early to middle stages of scenario planning maturity. The majority, 40%, described their approach as structured but manual, while 38% reported having a basic framework with gaps, highlighting a nearly even distribution between these two categories. Meanwhile, only 9% have reached an advanced and automated stage, suggesting that fully integrated scenario planning remains a challenge for most. Lastly, 13% of respondents indicated that they have no scenario planning in place, demonstrating that while awareness is growing, there is still significant room for improvement in implementing structured approaches.

Figure 2

Improve Validity and Relevance of Your Scenarios

Harsh Amarasuriya, Global Head of FP&A, Finance Transformation, Data Strategy at Clyde & Co, emphasised the critical role of validity in scenario planning, stressing that organisations must first identify true business drivers to ensure their assumptions are meaningful. He advocated for the "five whys" methodology to probe deeper into assumptions and distinguish between correlation and causation. This distinction is vital, as misinterpreting relationships between variables can lead to flawed forecasts.

A key concept introduced was lead vs. lag indicators. Harsh noted that while most forecasts focus on lag indicators like revenue, true predictive power lies in lead indicators such as new client acquisitions, project pipelines, or external market conditions. Organisations should closely monitor these drivers to refine their forecasts and enhance scenario accuracy over time. 

Figure 3

Harsh also underscored the importance of relevance in financial forecasting. Integrating cross-functional data, such as workforce metrics, operational efficiency, and workspace dynamics, enhances forecast precision. Additionally, effective scenario planning must be tailored to its audience - finance professionals may rely on numerical insights, while sales or marketing teams may require a more strategic narrative.

Finally, he highlighted the growing role of technology and data in making scenario planning more efficient, timely, and actionable, ensuring it aligns with broader business strategy, including ESG considerations.

Poll Insight: What is Your Preferred Approach to Forecasting?

The poll results indicate a strong preference for Rolling Forecasts, with 56% of respondents favouring this approach over traditional annual budgeting. This shift reflects a growing need for greater flexibility and adaptability in financial planning. Driver-based planning ranked second with 29%, highlighting its value in aligning forecasts with key business drivers. Meanwhile, annual budgeting, once the standard approach, received only 13%, suggesting that many organisations recognise its limitations in today's dynamic environment. Notably, AI-powered modelling remains in its early adoption phase, with just 2% of respondents utilising it, indicating that while AI is a promising tool for forecasting, widespread implementation is still limited.

Figure 4

Reduction of Risk, Effort and Time Spent in Scenario Modelling

Jean Salminen, Presales & Customer Success at Mercur Solutions UK, highlighted the benefits of reducing spreadsheet dependency in financial planning while maintaining their flexibility for conceptual modelling. Transitioning to a modern FP&A system minimises risks such as input errors, data collisions, and duplication of work, especially in collaborative environments where multiple teams handle financial models. Additionally, automation in data preparation and scenario generation enhances efficiency and accuracy, significantly reducing manual effort.

A key advantage of modern solutions is performance improvement, as they shift heavy processing away from individual computers, accelerating scenario modelling. These systems also enable real-time collaboration, allowing top-down adjustments while engaging departments for bottom-up inputs, ensuring more comprehensive and accountable forecasting. With centralised access controls, organisations can create and publish alternative budgets and forecasts securely without risking data inconsistencies.

Figure 5

Moreover, unlimited scenario generation allows businesses to test various strategic and economic conditions at different time horizons, leveraging driver-based planning for more precise decision-making. Jean demonstrated how a modern tool can rapidly create and adjust financial simulations, reinforcing its value in speed, flexibility, and control. By adopting such solutions, organisations can improve agility and prepare more effectively for an uncertain, fast-changing business environment.

Poll Insight: Which FP&A Tech Solution do You Use Most?

The poll results reveal that spreadsheets remain the dominant FP&A tool, with 57% of respondents relying on them for financial planning and analysis. While spreadsheets provide flexibility, the discussion emphasised the need to gradually shift some workload to more advanced solutions. Specialised FP&A tools ranked second with 21%, indicating growing adoption of purpose-built systems. BI reporting solutions (12%) and ERP-based tools (10%) were less commonly used, suggesting that while organisations recognise the benefits of automation and integration, many still depend on the familiarity and accessibility of spreadsheets for their core FP&A processes.

Figure 6

Conclusion

Effective scenario planning balances flexibility with structured methodology, ensuring that forecasts remain relevant, timely, and actionable. Organisations do not need to overhaul their systems immediately; instead, they can start small, integrating scenario thinking into existing processes and gradually evolving toward more sophisticated solutions.

At the same time, technology should complement — not replace — the agility of spreadsheets. While spreadsheets remain an essential part of financial planning, reducing dependency on them and shifting critical functions to modern FP&A solutions can significantly enhance accuracy, collaboration, and efficiency.

To watch the full webinar recording, please check out this link.

This Digital Nordic & Benelux & UKI FP&A Circle was proudly sponsored by Mercur.