The world has changed in so many ways since the last Brexometer on 11th March. There have been millions of Coronavirus cases and more than a hundred thousand deaths, with almost every human on the planet affected in their daily lives. The impact on business has been nothing less than catastrophic. Whole sectors have come to a grinding halt, across all countries and economies.
The Brexometer is a small casualty of the pandemic. It is no longer relevant. How much do we care about Brexit when our loved ones are dying or under threat?
For the sake of completeness, here is a final measurement. It will come as no surprise that in March the Index fell by a record 90 basis points, to 4.54. The economic only score dropped even faster, by 114 points to 4.38.
What factors caused the Index to fall?
The key factors were:
- A record loss of business confidence and activity, especially in the Services Sector which recorded an all-time low of 34.5 (out of 100) and a fall of 18.7 percentage points
- Dramatic falls in the 2020 GDP forecast, to minus 6.5% for the full year
- Substantial losses in value of the UK markets, with the FTSE 250 being particularly hard hit
What else can you tell me?
The media is full of Coronavirus stories, but here are some facts which have escaped extensive reporting:
- Supply chains have been extended by record levels, suggesting that there will be dislocation in both Manufacturing and Construction Sectors for months to come
- Employment levels have so far been well protected by the Government’s furlough scheme
- New orders across all sectors have dried up
- Less depressing news came from the Tech and Residential Construction Sectors
What happens next?
Thank you to all the readers of the Brexometer, as it goes into permanent self-isolation. I hope you have enjoyed it and gained some insights along the way, over the last four years.
There is a crying need for a UK Index that charts the gyrations of the UK as we all attempt to cope with this deadly virus. Watch this space! If it’s possible to create a new measure of our efforts to deal with the greatest crisis of modern times, I will find a path and I accept the challenge. Any contributors who have ideas or wish to join me, please get in touch.
In the meantime, stay safe, be well and keep the faith.
Article written by David West, Sales and Marketing Director, Accountagility.