This month there was not much movement across both economic and political measures as the UK took a breather after the trials and tribulations of March and April. A welcome period of stability, you might say.
This month the Accountagility Index (AAX) moved up six basis points to 5.09. Last month it was 5.03. The Index records UK political and economic health in a score out of ten. Any score below 5.00 is negative. Given the torrent of bad news, this move upwards may seem counter-intuitive.
There have been two opposing forces at war in the UK for a while now. Pulling the Accountagility Index (AAX) down is anxiety about Brexit, which is reaching fever pitch in the current febrile political climate. Keeping the score up on the other hand, is the surprising and reassuring underlying strength of the UK economy.
After the excitement of the past two months, when the Brexometer has been jumping up and down like a mouse on a trampoline, this month sees a more stable situation. The reading has risen by just two basis points from 4.95 in December, to 4.97, a small rise, but still below the parity level of 5.00.
In compiling the Brexometer , certain political factors are assessed. This month these factors are moving around considerably, even on a daily basis. For your interest though, here are some of the key political assumptions used for the January 2019 Brexometer reading.
Over the last month, the Brexit weather becomes more overcast, with the House of Commons vote on Theresa May’s deal suspended due to evident lack of support from MPs. Almost every day has seen a storm, with the deal being attacked from all sides and the EU leadership maintaining a hard line.
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The opposition showed their teeth over the past fortnight, by allying to take control of the Parliamentary agenda and pass a law extending Brexit by three months. Remainers have triumphed, pushing the exit date out to 31st January 2020. The Conservative party has lost its majority and cannot even call a General Election, to attempt to resolve the issue. Notwithstanding this, Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears to be determined to leave by 31st October 2019.
It’s early days for the UK’s new leadership team, and whilst Boris Johnson is not everyone’s cup of tea, there is a new momentum and style coming from Downing Street. This will have implications on further turbulence in Westminster over the coming weeks as we count down towards the latest Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019. What can be said is that the Cabinet is united for the first time since the Referendum, and that there is a revived sense of purpose and activity.
The leadership tussle between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt is entering its final throes, but whoever wins will have a series of challenges to face; convincing new EU leaders that a no-deal Brexit is real, getting Parliament to acquiesce and accept that the UK is leaving on the 31st October; avoiding a General Election; and mobilising the nation behind the exit. His most important task, however, based on the opinions of industry leaders, is “the urgent need to restore confidence” in the economy and in political decision-making.
May is over, Theresa fell too, and so too did the Index of Britain’s health.