After introducing the core principles of foresight in Part 1 of this series, this article turns to lived experience — a conversation with Peter Thommen on Strategic Foresight, CFOs as future-makers, and why IKEA Poland was the perfect proving ground.

When you talk to Peter Thommen, you quickly realise: this man hasn't just managed the future — he's lived it. He spent 15 years as CFO of IKEA Poland during a massive economic transformation, then led finance functions across Russia, Japan, and IKEA's global shared services. But beyond the spreadsheets and forecasts, Thommen is a rare breed in the CFO world: a passionate advocate and Strategic Foresight (SF) practitioner.

We sat down in June 2025 to talk about the human side of foresight, the unique IKEA culture that helped shape his approach, and why FP&A professionals may be better positioned than anyone to lead their organisations into the future.

From Firefighting to Foresight

Timo Wienefoet: Peter, it's a pleasure to talk to someone who has been applying Strategic Foresight for decades. How did you first get into it, and how did it change your planning approach at IKEA?

Peter Thommen: I first consciously encountered Strategic Foresight in 2005, while serving as CFO of IKEA Poland. I was part of an internal program that encouraged CFOs to move beyond numbers and become agents of change. That is when I met futurists from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, and it clicked instantly.

I fell in love with the method. It gave language and structure to something I had felt for years since arriving in Poland in 1993. Back then, the country was in chaos: inflation was over 50%, there was no convertible currency, and there was a jungle of laws. Planning two or three years ahead? Impossible. But with Poland's EU accession on the horizon, I went to my CEO and said: "We need to do foresight — now." Five minutes later, I had my first project.

The CFO as Co-reator of the Future

Timo Wienefoet: What first steps would you recommend for organisations starting with foresight, especially from a CFO's perspective?

Peter Thommen: I have never seen the CFO role as just executing budgets or producing forecasts. For me, the CFO is the CEO's sparring partner — someone who owns the planning process, leads the finance functions, and serves as the economic conscience of the leadership team. But this comes with a risk: You can easily be perceived as the "no-sayer," blocking bold ideas because the numbers don't add up. This is where Strategic Foresight becomes a game-changer.

A CFO is perfectly positioned to moderate future scenarios and help the management team converge on a shared view of tomorrow. This doesn't just improve strategy quality — it transforms the CFO from a reactive auditor into an active co-creator.

Megatrends: Safe Bets with Serious Consequences

Timo Wienefoet: You call megatrends the "safe cornerstones" of the future. How should CFOs use them to map risk and opportunity?

Peter Thommen: That is exactly what they are — long-term, cross-sectoral developments that will affect us, whether we like it or not. Think demographic change, AI, digitalisation, and the biotech revolution. They are not speculative — they are happening. The question isn't if, but how they impact your business.

Their strength is also their danger: they evolve slowly and are often underestimated. But if you identify what a megatrend means for your customers, operations, or business model early on, you can act preemptively and secure a competitive edge. If you ignore it, you risk being overwhelmed.

It is also important to understand the hierarchy: megatrends at the top, then market and industry trends, and finally specific developments within business units. When those lower-level activities don't align with the top-level direction, strategy becomes incoherent. In that sense, strategy itself often functions like an in-house megatrend.

From IKEA to Independent Foresight Advisor

Timo Wienefoet: What made you transition from IKEA to foresight consulting?

Peter Thommen: I left IKEA during the pandemic and took a six-month sabbatical. The key question I asked myself was: What do I want to do with the rest of my life?

The answer came fast. Today's world feels like Poland in the '90s: fast-moving, uncertain, messy. And I realized that the world needs foresight. There is simply no better tool for staying ahead and making smart decisions in times like these.

I also realised that I don't know anyone who's practiced foresight inside a company for 20+ years while also holding C-level responsibilities. Most foresight professionals are either academics or consultants. They analyse, but don't implement. Their scenarios often end up in drawers.

I wanted to change that. Foresight must be effective. Practical. Embedded in real decision-making. That is what I've done for 20 years — and what I now bring to boards and leadership teams.

Three Foresight Topics Every CFO Should Watch

Timo Wienefoet: What are your personal top foresight topics right now?

Peter Thommen: Easy. These are the three that keep me thinking:

1. The future of work, especially the tension between labour shortages and Gen Z values.
2. Technology adaptation — how companies can keep pace with AI and digital transformation without losing their identity.
3. Man-machine collaboration — we are redefining how humans and intelligent systems work together, and it's a societal task as much as a corporate one.

These are not abstract questions. They cut straight to the heart of how organisations, and finance functions, must evolve.

One Sentence to Remember

Timo Wienefoet: If you had to summarise your experience with Strategic Foresight in one sentence for your fellow CFOs, what would it be?

Peter Thommen: If you want to shape the future instead of being shaped by it, you need foresight — more than ever.

Conclusion: Turning Insight into Action

Strategic Foresight is both a corporate function and a personal leadership practice. It suits those who manage possibility as much as probability. It helps leaders navigate uncertainty. And above all, it builds the discipline to think beyond the next quarter.

So, where to begin? There are many ways to develop both the function and the mindset. The simplest one is to start a conversation about scanning the future, gaining a different view on your scenarios, and building foresight where it matters most: in your decisions.

“If you want to shape the future instead of being shaped by it, you need foresight — more than ever.“ 

Peter Thommen, long-time CFO at IKEA Poland, Russia, and Japan

If you are ready to dive deeper, reach out to Peter Thommen and the Swiss Future Minds Institute, or explore global leaders in the field like the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) and the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

In Part 3, we explore how to operationalise this vision, with practical steps FP&A teams can take to embed foresight into planning, budgeting, and scenario design.