The world has changed in so many ways since the last Brexometer on 11th March. There have been millions of Coronavirus cases and more than a hundred thousand deaths, with almost every human on the planet affected in their daily lives. The impact on business has been nothing less than catastrophic. Whole sectors have come to a grinding halt, across all countries and economies.
Last month we warned that the record level of the UK’s well- being needed to be re-visited once the impact of the coronavirus had been assessed… and look at what has happened since! The outbreak has dominated the media and infected business confidence around the world. It is still early days in the development of the virus, but already the Accountagility Index (AAX) has lost 41 basis points this month.
The UK left the EU on Friday 31st January 2020, with mixed emotions, and eleven months of colossal negotiations on a trade deal ahead. Business is also conflicted, with many concerns, but overall the reduction of political uncertainty has fostered a return to optimism.
The UK emerged from its teens into a new decade this month, on a wave of optimism about the future. The removal of the political turmoil and the alleviation of Brexit uncertainty have added to the feel good factor at the start of a new year. Sentiment is up and there is a widespread view that Britain is at a turning point.
For all planners, forecasters, analysts and political junkies, here is an unbiased assessment of the two main parties’ plans as we undergo a frenetic and emotionally charged General Election campaign.
The Accountagility Index (AAX) rose 23 basis points in November to 4.99, from 4.76 in October. The Index records UK political and economic health in a score out of ten. Any score below 5.00 is negative, so we remain in the red rather than in the black this month, but by the slenderest of margins.