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FP&A Analytics and Simpson’s Paradox

By Christian FOURNIER,  Retired Head of Finance Europe at Orange Business Services, Author (Globalisation - adapter l'organisation de son entreprise face à la mondialisation...)

Are your KPIs, Scoreboards and other metrics safe from the Simpson's paradox?

“Simpson’s paradox or Yule-Simpson effect is a paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined. It is sometimes given the descriptive title reversal paradox or amalgamation paradox”. (Extract from Wikipedia)

Navigating in Turbulent Times: The secret of effective forecasting and how to use it to make your business more agile

By Steve Morlidge, Business Forecasting thought leader, author of "Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting" and  "The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting" 

In this article, Steve Morlidge, author of "Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting"argues that the quality of business forecasting – used to steer an organisation – is unacceptably poor. He goes on to present six simple principles that will help executives significantly improve the performance of their forecast processes. More reliable forecasts speed up decision making and so help make businesses more agile.

 

Managing forecast risk

By John Stretch, Management education in finance and banking

As we enter 2017, many companies are busy finalising their annual budget. But how do you budget in a world where the best economists cannot predict the future? Perhaps the only approach is to prepare a budget as best you can, live with the uncertainty and then adapt to it and respond very fast when the future eventually happens.
This may explain why organisations have converted their annual budget process to a dynamic system of rolling forecasts.

The Qualities of FP&A Practitioners

By Karl Kern, Founder/President, Kern Analytics LLC

A definition of quality is “a distinctive characteristic possessed by someone.”  The work of FP&A practitioners focuses on thinking and learning about how financial activities – earning revenues, incurring costs, generating cash flows – affect organizations.  The thinking and learning about this relationship require a mindset that creates results.  

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