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Forecasting Quality

Hitting the Target but Missing the Point - Myths about Target Setting

By Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at Statoil

The world of management is full of myths and rituals. Many seem to have been with us forever, often explained and justified as “we have always done it like this”. Some have a shorter history, often introduced because “everybody else is doing it”.

Rolling Forecast – Case Study: A Review Of Management

By: Richard Reinderhoff, Freelance Consultant Strategy & Operations

A rolling forecast is not only about seeing the future unravel, but a constant evaluation of the management team to see if they are able to adjust their operations on time. Without it, any form of strategic planning becomes useless. Below you find a real-life case. Step-by-step each question will be briefly discussed. It is about a foreign business unit, which was part of a large European corporation, on the brink of a crisis.

Navigating in Turbulent Times: The secret of effective forecasting and how to use it to make your business more agile

By Steve Morlidge, Business Forecasting thought leader, author of "Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting" and  "The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting" 

In this article, Steve Morlidge, author of "Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting"argues that the quality of business forecasting – used to steer an organisation – is unacceptably poor. He goes on to present six simple principles that will help executives significantly improve the performance of their forecast processes. More reliable forecasts speed up decision making and so help make businesses more agile.

 

Managing forecast risk

By John Stretch, Management education in finance and banking

As we enter 2017, many companies are busy finalising their annual budget. But how do you budget in a world where the best economists cannot predict the future? Perhaps the only approach is to prepare a budget as best you can, live with the uncertainty and then adapt to it and respond very fast when the future eventually happens.
This may explain why organisations have converted their annual budget process to a dynamic system of rolling forecasts.

The not So Obvious Facets of Budgeting and Forecasting

By Timo Wienefoet, Managing Partner at IMPLEXA GmbH

No matter for a budget season or a continuous forecasting: the human factor is randomly covered in the process that may bring the best and the worst of management culture. A special eye on bias during the Performance Management and goal setting process is essential for process quality and to the FP&A skillset.  Missing the mark is suboptimal and settling for the wrong one has dire consequences for the company. Hopefully, it does, because planning without effect qualifies the planner as irrelevant to the business.

Time to shed light on the behavioral side of financial planning. With a twinkling eye, the not so obvious psychological patterns unexpectedly surface during every planning season.

„The greatest danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short, but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark.“ (Michelangelo)

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